Hypergeometric Calculator

Understand the probability of seeing certain cards or combinations of cards in your hand after altering.


Selections

Add selections (e.g. "cindy", "3 cost songs") with their minimum successes and total count in the population [successes of total].

For example, if I play 8 characters of cost 1 and I want at least 1 in my opening hand, the input would be [1 of 8].

Empty groups (i.e. unnamed selections) are still valid and included in the calculation.


Scenarios

Add scenarios to evaluate the impact of different card ratios. You may test up to 4 scenarios.

Set the successes of a particular selection to 0 to have it excluded from the calculation for that scenario.

When you have exactly 2 scenarios, you can use "Interpolate Combinations" to analyze all possible combinations of values between them.


Advanced Settings

Add "Additional Draws" to also include the probability of seeing the desired cards after some number of additional draws after alterting.


This calculator assumes your card selections do not overlap.

For example, if you have 4x Strength of a Raging Fire and 4x Let the Storm Rage On, you can't have "Songs [1 of 8] and Strength [1 of 4]" because these selections overlaps.

Game Configuration

Starting hand size should always be 7 for Lorcana.

Cards to see is how we represent the alterting. For example seeing 10 cards represents your initial 7 + 3 for altering, before you shuffle.

Additional draws happen post-mulligan. Set to 0 for just altering probabilities.

Total cards in deck:

Starting hand size:

Cards to see:

Additional draws:

Selection
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